TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
85
Brenton Strange
21%
Brenton Strange has a 21% chance to score a touchdown against Houston Texans in Week 6, the 116th highest on this week's board. Jacksonville Jaguars are projected for 22.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 4.1, receiving yards 45.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−23%HOU defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.08 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.16 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
85Brenton StrangeTE, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.1
38%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.4Targets
›75%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
−13%HOU vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Brenton StrangeTE, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 45 proj, avg 46
48%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.4Targets
›75%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›11.0Yards per catch
›45Model
›45Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
−13%HOU vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 46.5Projection 45Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 46.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 83% | 77% | 87% | 81% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.