RB, Baltimore Ravens
22
Derrick Henry
50%
Derrick Henry has a 50% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 11th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 23.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 92.
Touchdown breakdown
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
39%Share of team TD chances
−18%CLE defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
8TDs this season
−4%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.39 × 0.82 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.79 expected TDs = 54% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 50% chance to score. Rated elite.Player props
22Derrick HenryRB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 92 proj, avg 95
48%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›66%Carry share
›21.1Carries
›4.3Yards per carry
›92Model
›92Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−5%CLE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 33Avg line 94.5Projection 92Ceiling 152
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 94.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 53% | 67% | 62% | 55% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.