WR, Baltimore Ravens
7
Rashod Bateman
18%
Rashod Bateman has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 138th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 23.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.3, receiving yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+13%CLE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.08 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
7Rashod BatemanWR, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.5
42%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Rashod BatemanWR, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 35
47%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›14.2Yards per catch
›33Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 34.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 34.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 93% | 88% | 47% | 80% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.