TE, Baltimore Ravens
89
Mark Andrews
30%
Mark Andrews has a 30% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 57th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 23.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.6, receiving yards 29.
Touchdown breakdown
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+6%CLE defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.11 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.28 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
89Mark AndrewsTE, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.8
48%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›4.9Targets
›71%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Mark AndrewsTE, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 29 proj, avg 31
46%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›4.9Targets
›71%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›8.2Yards per catch
›29Model
›29Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 31.5Projection 29Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 71% | 52% | 58% | 72% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.