RB, Baltimore Ravens
43
Justice Hill
15%
Justice Hill has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 168th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 23.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 20.
Touchdown breakdown
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−18%CLE defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.07 × 0.82 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
43Justice HillRB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 20 proj, avg 20
46%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›9%Carry share
›3.0Carries
›6.4Yards per carry
›19Model
›20Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−5%CLE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 20.5Projection 20Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 47% | 33% | 38% | 46% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.