WR, Baltimore Ravens
4
Zay Flowers
32%
Zay Flowers has a 32% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 54th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 23.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 6.0, receiving yards 90.
Touchdown breakdown
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
+13%CLE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.10 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.29 expected TDs = 25% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 32% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
4Zay FlowersWR, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 6.0 proj, avg 5.8
55%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›27%Target share
›7.4Targets
›81%Catch rate
›6.0Model
›6.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.8Avg line 5.5Projection 6.0Ceiling 9.1
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Zay FlowersWR, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 90 proj, avg 86
52%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›27%Target share
›7.4Targets
›81%Catch rate
›6.0Receptions
›15.1Yards per catch
›91Model
›90Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 86.5Projection 90Ceiling 161
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 86.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | – | 33% | 73% | 82% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.