QB, Baltimore Ravens
8
Lamar Jackson
13%
Lamar Jackson has a 13% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 174th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 23.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 211, rushing yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
23.8Projected team points
2.5Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−23%CLE defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.5 × 0.05 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.09 expected TDs = 9% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 13% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
8Lamar JacksonQB, BAL vs CLEPassing yards: 211 proj, avg 219
44%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Pass attempts
›7.6Yards per attempt
›208Model
›211Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
+1%CLE pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 152Avg line 218.5Projection 211Ceiling 270
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 218.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Lamar JacksonQB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 27 proj, avg 31
40%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›15%Carry share
›4.8Carries
›5.3Yards per carry
›25Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−17%CLE vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 31.5Projection 27Ceiling 51
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 52% | – |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.