QB, New England Patriots
10
Drake Maye
21%
Drake Maye has a 21% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 118th highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 229, rushing yards 28.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−23%NYJ defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.09 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
10Drake MayeQB, NE vs NYJPassing yards: 229 proj, avg 251
34%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Pass attempts
›7.0Yards per attempt
›222Model
›229Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 165Avg line 250.5Projection 229Ceiling 294
The ring shows a
34% chance he goes over 250.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Drake MayeQB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 28 proj, avg 30
46%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›21%Carry share
›6.1Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›27Model
›28Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
−17%NYJ vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 29.5Projection 28Ceiling 52
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 81% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.