WR, New England Patriots
86
Efton Chism III
20%
Efton Chism III has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 120th highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.2, receiving yards 23.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−3%NYJ defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.08 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
86Efton Chism IIIWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.2
37%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Efton Chism IIIWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 25
47%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›10.7Yards per catch
›23Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 24.5Projection 23Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 18% | 25% | 45% | 76% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.