RB, New England Patriots
32
TreVeyon Henderson
29%
TreVeyon Henderson has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 69th highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 51.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+8%NYJ defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.11 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.31 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
32TreVeyon HendersonRB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 51 proj, avg 47
55%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›36%Carry share
›10.7Carries
›4.9Yards per carry
›52Model
›51Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
+2%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 47.5Projection 51Ceiling 83
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 60% | 37% | 37% | 16% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.