WR, New England Patriots
87
Romeo Doubs
26%
Romeo Doubs has a 26% chance to score a touchdown against New York Jets in Week 6, the 83rd highest on this week's board. New England Patriots are projected for 25.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.5, receiving yards 41.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%NYJ defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.35 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 26% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
87Romeo DoubsWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.6
46%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Romeo DoubsWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 44
46%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›16.2Yards per catch
›40Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 43.5Projection 41Ceiling 73
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56% | 67% | 73% | 64% | 83% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.