QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10
Jalon Daniels
9%
Jalon Daniels has a 9% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 243rd highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.3 points in 77°F with 16 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 106, rushing yards 26.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
3%Share of team TD chances
−23%PIT defense vs QBs
+3%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
+390Best odds (DraftKings), 20% implied
13%Model + market blend
-7%Edge vs book
1.9 × 0.03 × 0.77 × 1.03 × 1.08 =
0.05 expected TDs = 5% raw, calibrated against 4,223 past player-games to 9% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
10Jalon DanielsQB, TB vs PITPassing yards: 106 proj, avg 112
0%
58.9Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.5Pass attempts
›3.1Yards per attempt
›104Model
›106Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−2%PIT pass defense
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 76Avg line 173.5Projection 106Ceiling 136
The ring shows a
0% chance he goes over 173.5, the DraftKings line (best over price -113, implied 53%). Edge: -53%. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Jalon DanielsQB, TB vs PITRushing yards: 26 proj, avg 29
30%
58.9Projected plays
›43%Run rate
›25.4Team carries
›21%Carry share
›5.4Carries
›4.6Yards per carry
›25Model
›26Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%PIT run D
−17%PIT vs QBs
+2%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 35.5Projection 26Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
30% chance he goes over 35.5, the DraftKings line (best over price -112, implied 53%). Edge: -23%. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | 6% | 100% | 100% | Bye |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.