RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
44
Sean Tucker
19%
Sean Tucker has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 147th highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.5 points in 76°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 21.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−2%PIT defense vs RBs
+3%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−8%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.14 × 0.98 × 1.03 × 1.08 =
0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
44Sean TuckerRB, TB vs PITRushing yards: 21 proj, avg 20
51%
59.0Projected plays
›43%Run rate
›25.4Team carries
›22%Carry share
›5.6Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›21Model
›21Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%PIT run D
−1%PIT vs RBs
+2%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 20.5Projection 21Ceiling 34
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | 1% | 5% | 10% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.