RB, Denver Broncos
27
J.K. Dobbins
34%
J.K. Dobbins has a 34% chance to score a touchdown against Seattle Seahawks in Week 6, the 43rd highest on this week's board. Denver Broncos are projected for 19.0 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 59.
Touchdown breakdown
19.0Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
−2%SEA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−0%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.20 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.43 expected TDs = 35% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
27J.K. DobbinsRB, DEN vs SEARushing yards: 59 proj, avg 58
51%
56.8Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›22.8Team carries
›63%Carry share
›14.3Carries
›4.1Yards per carry
›59Model
›59Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−2%Game script
−3%SEA run D
−1%SEA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 21Avg line 58.5Projection 59Ceiling 97
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 34% | 49% | 32% | 52% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.