WR, Dallas Cowboys
9
KaVontae Turpin
19%
KaVontae Turpin has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against Green Bay Packers in Week 6, the 141st highest on this week's board. Dallas Cowboys are projected for 26.0 points in 57°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.7, receiving yards 20.
Touchdown breakdown
26.0Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−8%GB defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.07 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
9KaVontae TurpinWR, DAL vs GBReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.6
49%
61.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.2Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.6Targets
›65%Catch rate
›1.7Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.3
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9KaVontae TurpinWR, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 20 proj, avg 21
47%
61.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›40.2Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.6Targets
›65%Catch rate
›1.7Receptions
›12.1Yards per catch
›20Model
›20Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−4%GB vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 21.5Projection 20Ceiling 37
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14% | 9% | 16% | 10% | 40% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.