TE, Los Angeles Chargers
86
Oronde Gadsden II
23%
Oronde Gadsden II has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 104th highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 17.3 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.7, receiving yards 34.
Touchdown breakdown
17.3Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+21%KC defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.09 × 1.21 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
86Oronde Gadsden IITE, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.4
51%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.2Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
+12%KC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Oronde Gadsden IITE, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 28
60%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.2Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›12.5Yards per catch
›35Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
+12%KC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 28.5Projection 34Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 44% | 57% | 55% | 58% |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.