LACLos Angeles Chargers17.3projected
4:25 PM ETSun, Oct 18
LAC +380KC -420KC -8O/U 42.5Minimal impact
4days00hrs09min07secKCKansas City Chiefs25.3projected
GEHA Field at Arrowhead StadiumOpen air
GrassOpen air
67°FTemperature
12 mph SWind
0%Rain chance
60.8Projected plays per team
Conditions look neutral, so no weather adjustment is applied.
Touchdown chances
Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
Player props
86Oronde Gadsden IITE, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 28
60%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.2Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›12.5Yards per catch
›35Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
+12%KC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 28.5Projection 34Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Justin HerbertQB, LAC vs KCPassing yards: 215 proj, avg 206
58%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Pass attempts
›6.5Yards per attempt
›218Model
›215Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 154Avg line 205.5Projection 215Ceiling 275
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 205.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Patrick MahomesQB, KC vs LACRushing yards: 23 proj, avg 20
56%
61.2Projected plays
›49%Run rate
›29.9Team carries
›13%Carry share
›3.7Carries
›6.4Yards per carry
›24Model
›23Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+6%Game script
+2%LAC run D
+17%LAC vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 2Avg line 20.5Projection 23Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACRushing yards: 144 proj, avg 134
55%
61.2Projected plays
›49%Run rate
›29.9Team carries
›76%Carry share
›22.8Carries
›6.5Yards per carry
›147Model
›144Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+6%Game script
+2%LAC run D
+1%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 52Avg line 134.5Projection 144Ceiling 236
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 134.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Quentin JohnstonWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.9
52%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.5Targets
›49%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.9
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Oronde Gadsden IITE, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.4
51%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.2Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
+12%KC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Rashee RiceWR, KC vs LACReceptions: 5.7 proj, avg 5.7
50%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›8.1Targets
›70%Catch rate
›5.7Model
›5.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.6Avg line 5.5Projection 5.7Ceiling 8.7
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
34Keaton MitchellRB, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.4
48%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›85%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−2%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Rashee RiceWR, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 66 proj, avg 68
48%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›8.1Targets
›70%Catch rate
›5.7Receptions
›11.5Yards per catch
›66Model
›66Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 14Avg line 68.5Projection 66Ceiling 119
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 68.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Tre HarrisWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 35
46%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.3Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›13.4Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 34Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Xavier WorthyWR, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 36
46%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.1Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›10.7Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Tre HarrisWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
45%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.3Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
34Keaton MitchellRB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 26 proj, avg 27
45%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›24%Carry share
›6.6Carries
›3.9Yards per carry
›25Model
›26Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−1%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 27.5Projection 26Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Quentin JohnstonWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 38 proj, avg 42
45%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.5Targets
›49%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›13.7Yards per catch
›37Model
›38Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 41.5Projection 38Ceiling 69
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 41.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC vs KCReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.6
44%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Ladd McConkeyWR, LAC vs KCReceiving yards: 44 proj, avg 48
44%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.4Receptions
›12.6Yards per catch
›42Model
›44Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−12%KC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 47.5Projection 44Ceiling 78
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 20 proj, avg 21
44%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›4.7Targets
›61%Catch rate
›2.8Receptions
›6.8Yards per catch
›19Model
›20Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+2%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 21.5Projection 20Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Travis KelceTE, KC vs LACReceiving yards: 50 proj, avg 56
42%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.8Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.9Receptions
›12.2Yards per catch
›48Model
›50Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
−8%LAC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 55.5Projection 50Ceiling 89
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Justin HerbertQB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 25 proj, avg 30
39%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›18%Carry share
›4.8Carries
›4.8Yards per carry
›23Model
›25Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−15%KC vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 29.5Projection 25Ceiling 47
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Omarion HamptonRB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 50 proj, avg 57
39%
60.8Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.5Team carries
›46%Carry share
›12.6Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›47Model
›50Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−1%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 56.5Projection 50Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 56.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Patrick MahomesQB, KC vs LACPassing yards: 241 proj, avg 258
38%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Pass attempts
›7.5Yards per attempt
›235Model
›241Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−4%LAC pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 173Avg line 257.5Projection 241Ceiling 309
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 257.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Xavier WorthyWR, KC vs LACReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.2
37%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.1Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+1%LAC vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Travis KelceTE, KC vs LACReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 4.2
36%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.8Targets
›67%Catch rate
›3.9Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
−8%LAC vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Kenneth Walker IIIRB, KC vs LACReceptions: 2.9 proj, avg 3.0
33%
61.2Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›31.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›4.7Targets
›61%Catch rate
›2.8Model
›2.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−5%Game script
−5%LAC pass D
+2%LAC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.7Avg line 3.5Projection 2.9Ceiling 5.0
The ring shows a
33% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Omarion HamptonRB, LAC vs KCReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 2.0
32%
60.8Projected plays
›55%Pass rate
›33.3Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.3Targets
›86%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−0%Pace
+5%Game script
+1%KC pass D
−2%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
32% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Defenses
| Defense | vs RB TDs | vs WR TDs | vs TE TDs | QB rush TDs | Pass yds rank | Rush yds rank | Red zone TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | +5% | +3% | −20% | +33% | 6 | 21 | 44% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | −4% | −29% | +30% | −29% | 19 | 7 | 42% |