WR, Seattle Seahawks
15
Tory Horton
12%
Tory Horton has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Denver Broncos in Week 6, the 227th highest on this week's board. Seattle Seahawks are projected for 15.6 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 2.0, receiving yards 24.
Touchdown breakdown
15.6Projected team points
1.6Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−8%DEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
1.6 × 0.07 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
15Tory HortonWR, SEA vs DENReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 1.9
59%
57.2Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›32.3Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.0Targets
›66%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 1.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
15Tory HortonWR, SEA vs DENReceiving yards: 24 proj, avg 24
49%
57.2Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›32.3Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.0Targets
›66%Catch rate
›2.0Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›24Model
›24Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%DEN pass D
−4%DEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 24.5Projection 24Ceiling 43
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 31% | 22% | 17% | 17% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.