QB, Baltimore Ravens
5
Tyler Huntley
12%
Tyler Huntley has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 215th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 21.3 points in 56°F with 8 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 96, rushing yards 24.
Touchdown breakdown
21.3Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
−23%CLE defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
+425Best odds (DraftKings), 19% implied
15%Model + market blend
-4%Edge vs book
2.2 × 0.04 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.08 expected TDs = 8% raw, calibrated against 4,223 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
5Tyler HuntleyQB, BAL vs CLEPassing yards: 96 proj, avg 99
0%
59.1Projected plays
›47%Pass rate
›27.8Pass attempts
›3.4Yards per attempt
›95Model
›96Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−2%Game script
+1%CLE pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 69Avg line 161.5Projection 96Ceiling 123
The ring shows a
0% chance he goes over 161.5, the FanDuel line (best over price -114, implied 53%). Edge: -53%. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Tyler HuntleyQB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 24 proj, avg 27
52%
59.1Projected plays
›53%Run rate
›31.4Team carries
›16%Carry share
›5.1Carries
›4.6Yards per carry
›23Model
›24Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+2%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−17%CLE vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 23.5Projection 24Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 23.5, the BetRivers line (best over price -113, implied 53%). Edge: -1%. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | – | 48% | 100% | Bye |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.