TE, Baltimore Ravens
85
Josh Cuevas
11%
Josh Cuevas has a 11% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 246th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 22.5 points in 59°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.4, receiving yards 19.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+6%CLE defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.04 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.10 expected TDs = 9% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 11% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
85Josh CuevasTE, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 1.4 proj, avg 1.5
41%
59.4Projected plays
›47%Pass rate
›27.7Team pass attempts
›5%Target share
›1.5Targets
›92%Catch rate
›1.4Model
›1.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−3%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.4Ceiling 2.9
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Josh CuevasTE, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 20
44%
59.4Projected plays
›47%Pass rate
›27.7Team pass attempts
›5%Target share
›1.5Targets
›92%Catch rate
›1.4Receptions
›13.3Yards per catch
›18Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−3%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 20.5Projection 19Ceiling 34
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9% | 9% | 25% | 28% | 25% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.