TE, Houston Texans
87
Foster Moreau
18%
Foster Moreau has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, the 164th highest on this week's board. Houston Texans are projected for 20.0 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 1.8.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−4%JAX defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.08 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.18 expected TDs = 16% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
87Foster MoreauTE, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 1.8 proj, avg 1.8
55%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.5Targets
›74%Catch rate
›1.9Model
›1.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−2%JAX vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.1Avg line 1.5Projection 1.8Ceiling 3.6
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 29% | 57% | 36% | 39% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.