TE, Las Vegas Raiders
80
Ian Thomas
12%
Ian Thomas has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the 235th highest on this week's board. Las Vegas Raiders are projected for 24.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 1.6, receiving yards 17.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−14%BUF defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.05 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.11 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
80Ian ThomasTE, LV vs BUFReceptions: 1.6 proj, avg 1.6
48%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›5%Target share
›1.8Targets
›92%Catch rate
›1.6Model
›1.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
−8%BUF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.6Ceiling 3.2
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
80Ian ThomasTE, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 17 proj, avg 17
53%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›5%Target share
›1.8Targets
›92%Catch rate
›1.6Receptions
›10.9Yards per catch
›18Model
›17Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
−8%BUF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 16.5Projection 17Ceiling 31
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 16.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 49% | 20% | 31% | 40% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.