WR, Las Vegas Raiders
9
Jalen Nailor
16%
Jalen Nailor has a 16% chance to score a touchdown against Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the 184th highest on this week's board. Las Vegas Raiders are projected for 24.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 1.7, receiving yards 20.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+22%BUF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.06 × 1.22 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.16 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
9Jalen NailorWR, LV vs BUFReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.7
52%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.6Targets
›49%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+13%BUF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.1Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Jalen NailorWR, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 20 proj, avg 17
58%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.6Targets
›49%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›11.8Yards per catch
›21Model
›20Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+13%BUF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 20Ceiling 36
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 60% | 57% | 23% | – |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.