TE, Las Vegas Raiders
87
Michael Mayer
21%
Michael Mayer has a 21% chance to score a touchdown against Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the 123rd highest on this week's board. Las Vegas Raiders are projected for 24.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.6, receiving yards 32.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
−14%BUF defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.08 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.16 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 21% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
87Michael MayerTE, LV vs BUFReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.7
48%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.7Targets
›76%Catch rate
›3.6Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
−8%BUF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Michael MayerTE, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 32 proj, avg 32
50%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.7Targets
›76%Catch rate
›3.6Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›32Model
›32Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
−8%BUF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 31.5Projection 32Ceiling 57
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81% | 84% | 87% | 88% | 65% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.