RB, Seattle Seahawks
33
Velus Jones Jr.
16%
Velus Jones Jr. has a 16% chance to score a touchdown against Denver Broncos in Week 6, the 187th highest on this week's board. Seattle Seahawks are projected for 21.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects rushing yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+4%DEN defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−3%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.09 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,223 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
33Velus Jones Jr.RB, SEA vs DENRushing yards: 22 proj, avg 20
54%
59.7Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›26.2Team carries
›16%Carry share
›4.2Carries
›5.3Yards per carry
›22Model
›22Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−4%Pace
+2%Game script
+6%DEN run D
+1%DEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 20.5Projection 22Ceiling 36
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | – | 3% | – | 11% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.