TE, Chicago Bears
85
Cole Kmet
14%
Cole Kmet has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, the 210th highest on this week's board. Chicago Bears are projected for 26.3 points indoors. The model projects receiving yards 16.
Touchdown breakdown
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
+6%ATL defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.04 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.12 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
85Cole KmetTE, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 16 proj, avg 15
51%
70.0Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›35.5Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.2Targets
›62%Catch rate
›1.3Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›16Model
›16Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
+3%ATL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 15.5Projection 16Ceiling 28
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 15.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57% | 69% | 60% | 73% | 42% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.