RB, Chicago Bears
23
Roschon Johnson
28%
Roschon Johnson has a 28% chance to score a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, the 75th highest on this week's board. Chicago Bears are projected for 26.3 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.0, receiving yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−2%ATL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.10 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 28% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
23Roschon JohnsonRB, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 3.0
36%
70.0Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›35.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.1Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.1Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Roschon JohnsonRB, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 21
54%
70.0Projected plays
›51%Pass rate
›35.5Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.1Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.1Receptions
›7.3Yards per catch
›22Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
−1%ATL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 20.5Projection 22Ceiling 39
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 1% | – | 11% | 39% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.