WR, Green Bay Packers
87
J. Michael Sturdivant
13%
J. Michael Sturdivant has a 13% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 219th highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.0 points in 57°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.6.
Touchdown breakdown
27.0Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+2%DAL defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.05 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 13% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
87J. Michael SturdivantWR, GB vs DALReceptions: 1.6 proj, avg 1.5
48%
60.3Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›40.8Team pass attempts
›5%Target share
›2.2Targets
›75%Catch rate
›1.7Model
›1.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+1%DAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.6Ceiling 3.2
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 15% | 32% | 3% | 13% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.