TE, Green Bay Packers
18
Jonnu Smith
14%
Jonnu Smith has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 203rd highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.0 points in 57°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.7, receiving yards 30.
Touchdown breakdown
27.0Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+6%DAL defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.04 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
18Jonnu SmithTE, GB vs DALReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.7
51%
60.3Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›40.8Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.3Targets
›75%Catch rate
›1.7Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+3%DAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Jonnu SmithTE, GB vs DALReceiving yards: 30 proj, avg 28
53%
60.3Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›40.8Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›2.3Targets
›75%Catch rate
›1.7Receptions
›17.6Yards per catch
›30Model
›30Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+3%DAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 28.5Projection 30Ceiling 54
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47% | 22% | 33% | 22% | 34% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.