RB, Green Bay Packers
22
Pierre Strong
29%
Pierre Strong has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 65th highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.0 points in 57°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.3.
Touchdown breakdown
27.0Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+14%DAL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.09 × 1.14 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.31 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
22Pierre StrongRB, GB vs DALReceptions: 3.3 proj, avg 3.0
42%
60.3Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›40.8Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›4.4Targets
›78%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+8%DAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.3Ceiling 5.6
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | – | – | 41% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.