TE, New York Jets
89
Jeremy Ruckert
17%
Jeremy Ruckert has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 171st highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 51°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.2.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−14%NE defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.09 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.16 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
89Jeremy RuckertTE, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.1
39%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›2.7Targets
›84%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 34% | 42% | 44% | 33% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.