TE, New York Jets
85
Mason Taylor
12%
Mason Taylor has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 233rd highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 51°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.1, receiving yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
4%Share of team TD chances
−14%NE defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.04 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.06 expected TDs = 6% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
85Mason TaylorTE, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.1
37%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.6Targets
›66%Catch rate
›3.1Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Mason TaylorTE, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 23
46%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.6Targets
›66%Catch rate
›3.1Receptions
›7.1Yards per catch
›22Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 23.5Projection 22Ceiling 40
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66% | 46% | – | – | 59% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.