TE, Baltimore Ravens
88
Matthew Hibner
14%
Matthew Hibner has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against Cleveland Browns in Week 6, the 200th highest on this week's board. Baltimore Ravens are projected for 22.5 points in 59°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.6, receiving yards 22.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+6%CLE defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.06 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
88Matthew HibnerTE, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 1.6 proj, avg 1.7
48%
59.4Projected plays
›47%Pass rate
›27.7Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›1.7Targets
›92%Catch rate
›1.6Model
›1.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−3%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.6Ceiling 3.2
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Matthew HibnerTE, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 23
45%
59.4Projected plays
›47%Pass rate
›27.7Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›1.7Targets
›92%Catch rate
›1.6Receptions
›13.7Yards per catch
›21Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−3%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 23.5Projection 22Ceiling 39
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 39% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.