RB, Los Angeles Chargers
28
Kimani Vidal
27%
Kimani Vidal has a 27% chance to score a touchdown against Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, the 83rd highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Chargers are projected for 16.8 points in 67°F with 12 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 42.
Touchdown breakdown
16.8Projected team points
1.8Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%KC defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
1.8 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.24 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
28Kimani VidalRB, LAC vs KCRushing yards: 42 proj, avg 44
47%
60.7Projected plays
›45%Run rate
›27.4Team carries
›35%Carry share
›9.5Carries
›4.3Yards per carry
›41Model
›42Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%KC run D
−1%KC vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 43.5Projection 42Ceiling 69
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% | 10% | 25% | 35% | 42% |
The matchup
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City ChiefsSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.